
Exped
MegaMat Series
Car camping comfort champ, but some side sleepers find it thin.

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I think the Nemo Tensor Trail should be fine for you. I spent the last few years backpacking in the Ohio river valley (and elsewhere in the east coast and south) on a pad with a 2.5 R-value and was never once cold. I sleep notably warm as well, so I even used that pad down to 5F, but the reality is that winter in Virginia is rarely cold enough that this pad (especially if paired with a foam pad) would not be sufficient for you.
Just remember the Exped hype is from their pads with foam in them. This won't have that. That being said, I have both a massive Exped and a NEMO Tensor. I sleep like a baby on both.
I use a Nemo Tensor. They're not cheap but they pack super small and have a few variations of shape and insulation to best fit your needs. If you end up going with something lighter, you can always double up with a folding pad to get more insulation. One thing you could try is to play with the amount of air in the pad. I see most people try and inflate it to the max and it becomes a wooden board and not comfortable to sleep on. Let a little air out to make it a shade softer and it might improve comfort. edit: Thermarest also has pads with high insulation values. In my experience they're a little louder (crinkly) but that fades with use and the noise is coming from the stiff insulating sheets on the inside. So it's a trade-off.
If your sleeping bag has little loops along the sides (I know my Sea to Summit does) you could try a length of 1/8" bungie cord laced along them to "strap" it to the pad. I've also seen some place flat silicone dots on top of the pad, something like [these](https://www.amazon.com/Jayen-Self-Adhesive-Anti-Sliding-Anti-Scratch-Protectors/dp/B0FQJ14MY6/ref=sr_1_4_sspa?crid=1LAZ7FA29LW3P&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.kDtDFP7JNVPH4MhtqxJTiSiknWFjuEplzvUl3u68G-NfjsloVq09cPnKqEhgou1nbDPl5NH5453eXK5IPAa5AphpegI7at7oIWGyQJ2i2IA5MLEKRcDjIKCEq2J7_5ANkYExytuh_1dTC8QBTI5BeIQYhIOcBmXDW2e8--MrzKraVCsBO30Eof1hxwbuk08qJIXG9JHe_IBnwXkBDEw0vg0OhcLBRBAav5Iopq4IBqGHGmuQKWdUYv061nVGm__Dc8Aj7X06V5p61KR7vslgQnu3p11JVZs5JT3FT8UX1Q0.iW-TBF2qVWq-dhovhq5CY58oIDSIvwqmYj-Bo4z_N_8&dib_tag=se&keywords=flat%2Bsilicone%2Bdots&qid=1776963649&sprefix=flatsilicone%2Bdots%2Caps%2C216&sr=8-4-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&th=1), to keep the bag from sliding around as much.
Nemo Tensor Trail is the correct answer.
Nemo Tensor Trail has worked great for me.
The Nemo Tensor line of pads is what you need. I haven't messed with the Elite (8.5 oz / regular mummy), but the Trail (13 oz / regular mummy) and Insulated (14.1 oz / regular mummy) have treated me well this year. If you want to get full-season use, just get the insulated—it has an r-value of 5.4 and is only \~1 oz heavier.
The Nemo Tensor line of pads is what you need. I haven't messed with the Elite (8.5 oz / regular mummy), but the Trail (13 oz / regular mummy) and Insulated (14.1 oz / regular mummy) have treated me well this year. If you want to get full-season use, just get the insulated—it has an r-value of 5.4 and is only \~1 oz heavier.
I’ve used mine down to 20 degrees. Any colder and I use a foam pad underneath. The tensor is awesome, especially when paired with the right bag for conditions.
I think the Nemo Tensor All Seasons (19oz) is the best all around pad on the market right now, and a lot of people seem to agree. You don't mention location or conditions, but if the R-value is suitable, the Trail version is lighter but built pretty much identically. All 3 Tensors are the right combo of weight, comfort and R-Value, in my opinion. Leaning slightly towards comfort over weight, the Zen Bivy Flex Air (24oz) is really comfy. If you lean farther to the comfort spectrum than that, people seem to love the Thermarest Neoloft (30oz).

Exped
MegaMat Series
Car camping comfort champ, but some side sleepers find it thin.

Exped
Ultra Series
Lightweight side-sleeper comfort, but a bit pricey and bulky.

NEMO
Tensor Series
Ultralight side-sleeper comfort, but slippery and prone to leaks.

Big Agnes
Rapide SL Insulated Sleeping Pad
Comfortable with side rails, but heavy and warmth claims disputed.

Therm-a-Rest
NeoLoft™ Sleeping Pad
Very comfortable, good service, but heavy and bulky for backpacking.

Ranked #1
Exped - MegaMat Series

Ranked #1
Exped - MegaMat Series

Ranked #1
Exped - MegaMat Series

Ranked #1
Exped - MegaMat Series

Ranked #1
Therm-a-Rest - NeoAir Xtherm Series